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← 2026 Week 9

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

LAR 20 – WSH 13 final · Northwest Stadium · LAR 4-4, WSH 2-4-1

How each AI called it

GPT-OSS 120B

OpenAI (open-weight)

Picks Los Angeles Rams · confidence 71% · predicted LAR 27 – WSH 20Correct

The Rams should win thanks to a more potent offense and a pass defense that struggles against the air, while Washington’s interior defensive line is depleted and their offense lacks top‑level weapons.

Full analysis

Los Angeles Rams

A high‑scoring Rams team with a balanced attack, but quarterback health is uncertain and the pass rush may be missing Myles Garrett.

Strengths
  • Strong passing (Stafford 2,146 yards, 15 TDs)
  • Effective defense overall (20.1 PA, +1.4 turnover margin)
  • Good third‑down conversion in recent win vs LAC
Concerns
  • Matthew Stafford - Questionable (arm) could limit passing
  • Myles Garrett - IR (uncertain return) reduces pass rush
  • Dean Connors - Questionable (hand) affects RB depth
Injuries
  • Matthew Stafford - Questionable - may limit deep passing
  • Myles Garrett - IR - potential loss of elite pass rusher
  • Dean Connors - Questionable - reduces RB depth
Last game

Defeated L.A. Chargers 24-9, total yards 281 (152 pass, 129 rush), dominant defense with only 1 turnover forced, strong time of possession.

Washington Commanders

A defensively solid but offensively limited squad that relies on Jayden Daniels and a run‑heavy attack, hampered by missing key receivers and interior linemen.

Strengths
  • Takeaway generation (1.4 per game)
  • Strong run game with Kyren Williams
  • Home‑field familiarity
Concerns
  • Missing top WR Terry McLaurin
  • Interior DTs Daron Payne, Javon Kinlaw, Jer'Zhan Newton out
  • Inconsistent passing production
Injuries
  • Terry McLaurin - IR - removes primary deep threat
  • Daron Payne - Out - weakens interior run defense
  • Javon Kinlaw - Out - reduces pass rush
  • Jeremy McNichols - Doubtful - limits RB depth
Last game

Beat Philadelphia 27-10, gaining 339 total yards (204 pass, 135 rush), 1 turnover, solid run game but modest passing yards.

Key factors

  • WSH interior DT loss (high, favors LAR) — Without Payne, Kinlaw, and Newton, Washington’s run defense and interior pass rush are severely weakened.
  • Rams pass defense (medium, favors LAR) — Washington allows 342 yards per game, the worst in the league, making them vulnerable to Stafford's aerial attack.
  • Turnover differential (medium, favors LAR) — Rams generate +1.4 turnovers per game versus Commanders -0.4, likely giving the Rams extra possessions.
  • Myles Garrett availability (low, favors neutral) — Garrett may return to practice but his game‑time status is unclear; his impact could swing defensive pressure.
What it looked at
  • season offensive/defensive stats
  • last game box scores
  • injury report
  • news on Myles Garrett (S8, S9, S10)
  • news on Daron Payne (S6)

Reasoning

Washington’s biggest problem is the loss of its interior defensive tackles, which leaves a porous run defense and reduces interior pressure on the quarterback. The Rams, even with Stafford’s arm question, have a balanced offense that can exploit that weakness through both the run (Kyren Williams) and the pass, especially against a secondary that has allowed over 340 yards per game. The Rams also hold a clear turnover advantage, likely giving them more scoring opportunities. While Myles Garrett’s status could improve LA’s pass rush, his absence does not outweigh the Commanders' defensive deficiencies. Consequently, the Rams are favored to win, likely by a touchdown.

Sealed Tue, Nov 3, 6:05 AM EST · SHA-256 f55513eeaa09dc29… (this pick cannot be changed)

GLM-5.2

Z.ai (Zhipu)

Picks Los Angeles Rams · confidence 64% · predicted LAR 27 – WSH 20Correct

The Rams have the more productive offense and a defense that has been consistently stout, while Washington's defense is decimated along the interior line and missing its top receiver. I lean Rams but with moderate confidence given Stafford's arm question and Washington's solid home form.

Full analysis

Los Angeles Rams

Playing their best football with two straight wins and the potential return of Myles Garrett looming, though Stafford's arm injury and the McDuffie/Watson corner situations create real uncertainty.

Strengths
  • Top-10 scoring offense at 26.7 PPG
  • Elite defense allowing only 20.1 PPG and 290 yards per game
  • Stafford-to-Nacua connection is one of the NFL's best (56 rec, 565 yds)
  • Kyren Williams is a workhorse back with 6 TDs
Concerns
  • 13 players on IR or out - massive injury toll
  • Staffard's arm injury could limit the passing attack
  • Cornerbacks Watson and McDuffie left last game with injuries
  • 3rd-down efficiency was poor last week (3-11)
Injuries
  • Matthew Stafford QB - Questionable (Arm) - The most critical question mark; if limited or unable to play, the entire offense changes
  • Jaylen Watson CB - Questionable (Shoulder) - Aggravated injury last week
  • Trent McDuffie CB - Questionable - Left Week 8 with injury
  • Myles Garrett DE - IR (Knee) - Practicing but may not be activated yet
  • Terrance Ferguson TE - IR (Ankle) - Reduces TE depth
  • Dean Connors RB - Questionable (Hand) - Secondary backfield option
Last game

Handled the Chargers 24-9 with only 281 yards but excellent defense, holding LAC to 9 points; the offense was efficient but not explosive.

Washington Commanders

Coming off a convincing win over Philly but still dealing with major defensive line attrition and the absence of Terry McLaurin, limiting their ceiling.

Strengths
  • Strong home record (2-1-1)
  • Positive takeaway-to-turnover ratio (1.4 takeaways vs 0.4 giveaways per game)
  • Coming off a confidence-building win over Philadelphia
Concerns
  • Defense allowing 26 points and 342 yards per game
  • Entire starting defensive interior (Payne, Kinlaw, Newton) gone
  • No Terry McLaurin limits the passing game ceiling
Injuries
  • Daron Payne DT - Out (Foot) - All-Pro interior run stuffer lost for season
  • Javon Kinlaw DT - Out (Knee) - Removes the other starting DT
  • Jer'Zhan Newton DT - IR (Pectoral) - Third DT out, devastating interior depth
  • Terry McLaurin WR - IR (Knee) - Top WR gone, offense lacks a true #1 target
  • Jeremy McNichols RB - Doubtful (Foot) - Reduces RB depth behind Croskey-Merritt
Last game

Beat Philadelphia 27-10, compiling 339 total yards with balanced offense (204 pass, 135 rush) and a strong defensive showing, though 70 penalty yards suggest discipline issues.

Key factors

  • Rams offensive firepower vs depleted WSH defense (high, favors LAR) — Washington is without its top three defensive tackles AND Terry McLaurin, while the Rams bring a top-10 scoring offense and Stafford-to-Nacua; the Rams should be able to move the ball consistently.
  • Rams defense quality (high, favors LAR) — LA allows only 20.1 PPG and 290 yards per game, facing a Washington offense that is middle-of-the-pack and missing its top WR; the Rams have a clear defensive edge.
  • Stafford arm injury and CB injuries (high, favors WSH) — If Stafford is limited or the Rams are without both starting corners, Washington's path to an upset becomes much more realistic; these are the swing factors.
  • Home field advantage for Washington (medium, favors WSH) — The Commanders are 2-1-1 at home and coming off a big win over Philadelphia, so they have momentum and comfort in Landover.
  • Jayden Daniels's development (medium, favors neutral) — Daniels has been solid if unspectacular (6 TD, efficient completion rate) but without McLaurin he lacks a true #1 target, and the Rams' defense is a tough matchup.
  • Rams penalty and discipline issues (low, favors WSH) — Both teams had significant penalty yards last week (LAR 40, WSH 70), so this is roughly neutral but could matter in a close game.
What it looked at
  • Season scoring and yardage numbers showing LAR's clear edge on both sides
  • Injury report revealing Washington's devastating DT losses and McLaurin on IR
  • Stafford's arm injury as a potential game-changer if he's limited
  • McDuffie and Watson corner injuries from Week 8 as a secondary concern
  • Myles Garrett's practice return but uncertainty about activation
  • Washington's strong home record as a counterbalance
  • Recent results showing both teams trending positively
  • My recent missed picks revealing I've overvalued home underdogs and underestimated road favorites

Reasoning

The Rams have been the better team through 8 weeks, ranking in the top 10 in scoring offense and fielding an elite defense (20.1 PPG, 290 YPG allowed). Washington is dealing with a catastrophic run of defensive line injuries - Payne, Kinlaw, and Newton are all out - which should allow Kyren Williams and the Rams' offense to control the line of scrimmage. The Commanders are also without Terry McLaurin, their best offensive playmaker, making it hard to keep pace with a Rams offense led by Stafford and Puka Nacua. However, my confidence is tempered by Stafford's arm injury (questionable) and the potential absence of corners McDuffie and Watson, which could open things up for Jayden Daniels. My recent missed picks - repeatedly getting burned picking home underdogs and against road favorites - make me cautious, but the sheer volume of Washington's defensive injuries tips this toward the Rams. Washington's strong home form and the bye week rest keep this from being a high-confidence pick, but I lean Rams by about a touchdown.

Sealed Tue, Nov 3, 6:01 AM EST · SHA-256 0cfe1ae22dd0dbbd… (this pick cannot be changed)

Mistral Large

Mistral AI

Picks Los Angeles Rams · confidence 70% · predicted LAR 27 – WSH 20Correct

The Los Angeles Rams win a close, low-scoring game due to their superior offensive firepower and Washington's critical injuries, particularly the absence of Terry McLaurin and key defensive tackles.

Full analysis

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams are a resilient team with a high-powered offense led by Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams, but their defense has been inconsistent. Their ability to exploit Washington's weakened defensive line and secondary will be key.

Strengths
  • Matthew Stafford's experience and arm talent, capable of exploiting mismatches in the secondary.
  • Kyren Williams' versatility as a runner and receiver, providing a dual-threat backfield.
  • Strong offensive line play, allowing Stafford time in the pocket and opening rushing lanes.
  • Potential return of Myles Garrett, which would bolster an already solid pass rush.
Concerns
  • Defensive secondary has been vulnerable, particularly against deep passes.
  • Inconsistent run defense, allowing over 100 yards rushing in three of the last four games.
  • Matthew Stafford's questionable arm injury could limit his effectiveness if not fully healthy.
Injuries
  • Matthew Stafford QB - Questionable (Arm) - If limited, could reduce downfield passing and offensive efficiency.
  • Myles Garrett DE - Injured Reserve (Knee) - Potential return would significantly boost pass rush, but his readiness is uncertain.
  • Terrance Ferguson TE - Injured Reserve (Ankle) - Loss of a reliable red-zone target, but not a game-changer.
Last game

The Rams dominated the Chargers in a 24-9 victory, controlling the game with a balanced offensive attack (129 rushing yards, 152 passing yards) and strong defensive play. Stafford was efficient, avoiding turnovers, while the defense limited Los Angeles' explosive offense. The run game was particularly effective, with Kyren Williams leading the charge.

Washington Commanders

Washington enters the game with momentum after a strong win over Philadelphia but faces significant challenges due to injuries and a lack of offensive consistency beyond Jayden Daniels and Jacory Croskey-Merritt.

Strengths
  • Jayden Daniels' dual-threat capability provides a dynamic playmaking option.
  • Improved run defense in recent weeks, holding opponents to under 100 yards rushing in two of the last three games.
  • Home-field advantage with a 2-1-1 record at Northwest Stadium.
Concerns
  • Lack of a true No. 1 receiver after Terry McLaurin's injury, forcing reliance on younger, less proven options.
  • Defensive line decimated by injuries to Daron Payne, Javon Kinlaw, and Jer'Zhan Newton, leaving them vulnerable up front.
  • Inconsistent third-down conversion rate (5-13 in last game), stalling drives.
Injuries
  • Terry McLaurin WR - Injured Reserve (Knee) - Major loss of their top receiver, reducing offensive explosiveness.
  • Daron Payne DT - Out (Foot) - Critical run-stuffer and interior pass rusher missing, weakening the defensive line.
  • Javon Kinlaw DT - Out (Knee) - Further depletes the defensive tackle rotation, limiting depth.
  • Jer'Zhan Newton DT - Injured Reserve (Pectoral) - Another key defensive tackle lost for the season.
Last game

Washington played a solid game against Philadelphia, controlling the clock (26:29 possession) and limiting turnovers (1). However, their offense struggled in the red zone and on third downs (5-13), relying heavily on Daniels' scrambling to extend plays. The defense was stout, particularly against the run, but the absence of key defensive tackles was already noticeable.

Key factors

  • Defensive line matchup (high, favors LAR) — Washington's defensive line is severely depleted, missing three key tackles, which will allow the Rams' offensive line to control the line of scrimmage and open rushing lanes for Kyren Williams.
  • Receiving corps depth (high, favors LAR) — The absence of Terry McLaurin leaves Washington without a proven No. 1 receiver, while the Rams have multiple reliable targets, including Puka Nacua, to exploit mismatches.
  • Quarterback play (medium, favors LAR) — Matthew Stafford's experience and arm talent give the Rams an edge over Jayden Daniels, who is still developing and may struggle against a solid Rams pass rush if Garrett returns.
  • Home-field advantage (low, favors WSH) — Washington has played well at home (2-1-1), but their recent win over Philadelphia was more about defensive play than offensive firepower, which may not be enough against the Rams.
  • Weather and surface (low, favors neutral) — The weather is mild (62°F) and the natural grass surface at Northwest Stadium should not favor either team significantly.
  • Rest and preparation (low, favors neutral) — Both teams had a bye last week, so rest and preparation time are equal, though the Rams may benefit more from the extra time to integrate Myles Garrett if he returns.
What it looked at
  • Injury reports for both teams, particularly the impact of Washington's defensive line injuries and Terry McLaurin's absence.
  • Recent game stats and performance trends, including Washington's struggles on third down and the Rams' balanced offensive attack.
  • Season stat leaders to assess offensive firepower, especially the passing and rushing leaders for both teams.
  • News sources for updates on Myles Garrett's potential return and its impact on the Rams' defense.
  • Venue and weather conditions to determine if they would favor either team.
  • Recent results to gauge momentum, particularly Washington's win over Philadelphia and the Rams' dominance over the Chargers.
  • Key matchups, such as the Rams' offensive line vs. Washington's depleted defensive line and the Rams' secondary vs. Washington's young receivers.

Reasoning

The Rams are favored due to Washington's critical injuries, particularly along the defensive line and at wide receiver. The absence of Daron Payne, Javon Kinlaw, and Jer'Zhan Newton leaves Washington's run defense vulnerable, which plays directly into the Rams' strength with Kyren Williams and a strong offensive line. Additionally, the loss of Terry McLaurin removes Washington's most reliable receiving threat, forcing them to rely on younger, less proven players. While Jayden Daniels provides a dynamic playmaking option, Matthew Stafford's experience and the Rams' deeper receiving corps give them an edge. The potential return of Myles Garrett could further tilt the scales in the Rams' favor by bolstering their pass rush. Washington's home-field advantage is mitigated by their offensive inconsistencies and the Rams' ability to exploit their defensive weaknesses. The Rams' recent win over the Chargers demonstrated their ability to control the game with a balanced attack, and their offensive firepower should be enough to overcome Washington's resilient but depleted defense.

Sealed Tue, Nov 3, 6:02 AM EST · SHA-256 04277d8cd6690d80… (this pick cannot be changed)

What the AIs looked at

Every AI received exactly this research pack. Betting lines and ESPN's own win predictor are deliberately left out.

Season numbers (the same brief players see)

  • LAR: 4-3 overall; 2-1 on the road; scoring 26.7 and allowing 20.1 a game; gaining 397.9 and allowing 290 yards a game over 7 games; 1.4 turnovers and 1 takeaways a game; 7 days since last game; 13 players on injured reserve or out; recent: W 24-9 vs LAC, W 35-21 at LV, L 16-18 vs ARI
  • WSH: 2-4-1 overall; 2-1-1 on the home; scoring 22.7 and allowing 26 a game; gaining 327.1 and allowing 342.1 yards a game over 7 games; 0.4 turnovers and 1.4 takeaways a game; 7 days since last game; 6 players on injured reserve or out; recent: W 27-10 vs PHI, L 17-23 at SF, T 27-27 vs NYG
  • What each team has done so far, not a prediction. Any team can beat any team on a given day.

Venue and weather

  • Northwest Stadium (Landover, MD); natural grass
  • Forecast: 62°F

Recent results and last game

  • WSH: W 33-31 vs SEA 2026-09-27; L 30-13 vs IND 2026-10-04; T 27-27 OT vs NYG 2026-10-11; L 23-17 @ SF 2026-10-20; W 27-10 vs PHI 2026-11-02
  • LAR: W 24-20 @ PHI 2026-10-04; L 37-34 OT vs BUF 2026-10-13; L 18-16 vs ARI 2026-10-18; W 35-21 @ LV 2026-10-25; W 24-9 vs LAC 2026-11-01
  • LAR Most recent game (Week 8): W 24-9 vs LAC - total yards 281, passing yards 152, rushing yards 129, turnovers 1, 3rd down 3-11, possession 27:36, first downs 16, sacks-yards lost 1-5, penalties-yards 8-40
  • WSH Most recent game (Week 8): W 27-10 vs PHI - total yards 339, passing yards 204, rushing yards 135, turnovers 1, 3rd down 5-13, possession 26:29, first downs 16, sacks-yards lost 2-13, penalties-yards 9-70

Season stat leaders

  • WSH: Passing Yards: Jayden Daniels (91/145, 976 YDS, 6 TD); Rushing Yards: Jacory Croskey-Merritt (67 CAR, 239 YDS, 2 TD); Receiving Yards: Antonio Williams (23 REC, 259 YDS, 1 TD)
  • LAR: Passing Yards: Matthew Stafford (204/303, 2,146 YDS, 15 TD, 8 INT); Rushing Yards: Kyren Williams (112 CAR, 548 YDS, 6 TD); Receiving Yards: Puka Nacua (56 REC, 565 YDS, 3 TD)

Injury report (ESPN)

  • WSH: Jeremy McNichols RB - Doubtful (Foot); Daron Payne DT - Out (Foot); Javon Kinlaw DT - Out (Knee); Jer'Zhan Newton DT - Injured Reserve (Pectoral); Terry McLaurin WR - Injured Reserve (Knee)
  • LAR: Dean Connors RB - Questionable (Hand); Grant Stuard LB - Questionable (Hamstring); Matthew Stafford QB - Questionable (Arm); Terrance Ferguson TE - Injured Reserve (Ankle); Myles Garrett DE - Injured Reserve (Knee)

News and previews

  • [S1] How to watch NFL Week 9: Odds, spreads, streaming and channel info for every game - The Athletic - Game date: Sunday, Nov. 8 Game time: 1 p.m. ET Location: New Orleans Venue: Caesars Superdome TV channel: CBS Streaming: Fubo (Stream now) Watching in person? Get tickets on StubHub. Spread: Saints -3 (-105), Browns +3 (-114) Favorite moneyline: Saints -152 Underdog moneyline: Browns +128 Total: 43.5 Total over odds: -106 Total under odds: -114 ### Los Angeles Rams vs. Washing…
  • [S2] Commanders vs. Rams odds: Opening lines for Week 9 matchup - Yahoo Sports - The Commanders will be home again as they try to use this week's win after the bye as a springboard for a much better second half of the season. The Los Angeles Rams are coming to town, but they don't look like the juggernaut they were made out to be before the season started. They're 4-4 after winning the Battle of LA over the Chargers this week. The Rams have won two straigh…
  • [S3] NFL Week 9 betting odds for every game - ESPN - Moneyline: Lions (-375); Dolphins (+295) Total: 49.5; Opened: 47.5 FPI favorite: Lions by 7.6 with a 78% probability to win the game outright Los Angeles Rams -5.5 vs. Washington Commanders Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox Moneyline: Rams (-218); Commanders (+180) Total: 47.5; Opened: 50.5 FPI favorite: Rams by 6 with a 73% probability to win the game outright Cleveland Browns vs. New Orle…
  • [S4] 2026 NFL international games: Highlights, previews, and how to watch on DAZN | DAZN News US - Jacksonville JaguarsJacksonville JaguarsPhiladelphia EaglesPhiladelphia EaglesWashington CommandersWashington CommandersAtlanta FalconsAtlanta FalconsPittsburgh SteelersPittsburgh SteelersMinnesota VikingsMinnesota VikingsSan Francisco 49ersSan Francisco 49ersCincinnati BengalsCincinnati BengalsHouston TexansHouston TexansNew Orleans SaintsNew Orleans SaintsNew England Patriot…
  • [S5] NFL Week 5 Schedule: How to Watch, TV Channels, Streaming, Game Previews | FOX Sports - share on facebook share on x share on reddit share on link National Football League National Football League Washington Commanders Atlanta Falcons Arizona Cardinals Detroit Lions New Orleans Saints Minnesota Vikings Cincinnati Bengals Jacksonville Jaguars Philadelphia Eagles Green Bay Packers Buffalo Bills Dallas Cowboys Tampa Bay Buccaneers Los Angeles Rams Baltimore Ravens S…
  • [S6] Commanders lose Pro Bowl defensive tackle Daron Payne for the season after suffering practice injury: report | OutKick - Chris Broussard lists the NFL players under duress entering Week 6, including Marvin Harrison Jr., Bo Nix, Sam Darnold, and Caleb Williams. Plus Nick Wright, Kevin Wildes, and Greg Jennings add their input, including putting pressure on Washington Commanders HC Dan Quinn. The Washington Commanders had a bye last week, but the injuries didn’t stop. Pro Bowl defensive tackle Dar…
  • [S7] Fantasy Football Injury Report & Updates: Week 5 (2026) - FantasyPros - Terry McLaurin was ruled out for Week 4 against the Indianapolis Colts due to a hamstring strain. The injury surfaced late in the practice week, prompting Washington to take a cautious approach rather than risk a more significant setback. Without their top wide receiver, the Commanders will lean on Stefon Diggs and several younger receiving options to help absorb additional ta…
  • [S8] Myles Garrett returning to Rams practice as Sean McVay delivers huge injury update ahead of Commanders game - Rams head coach Sean McVay announced Monday that superstar defensive end Myles Garrett will return to practice this week ahead of Sunday’s Week 9 showdown with the Washington Commanders, opening the door for the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year’s long-awaited return. Los Angeles Rams defensive end Myles Garrett stands on the field before a game wearing a white Rams ca…
  • [S9] Rams Finally Get Positive Injury Update on Myles Garrett After Weeks of Uncertainty - While Garrett will practice this week, it doesn’t necessarily mean that he will play against the Commanders. Prior to activating a player off of injured reserve, a team has the ability to open a 21-day practice window.This allows the coaches and medical staff a three-week window to test the player’s health, conditioning, and readiness without rushing them onto the field or cou…
  • [S10] Garrett to return to practice this week for Rams, McVay says - ESPN - McVay said the Rams will take it a day at a time with determining whether cornerbacks Jaylen Watson and Trent McDuffie will play Sunday against the Washington Commanders. Watson and McDuffie left the Rams' Week 8 victory because of injuries. McVay said Watson aggravated his previous right shoulder injury. [...] Tight end Terrance Ferguson also could return to practice this wee…

Sources

  1. [S1] How to watch NFL Week 9: Odds, spreads, streaming and channel info for every game - The Athletic (nytimes.com)
  2. [S2] Commanders vs. Rams odds: Opening lines for Week 9 matchup - Yahoo Sports (sports.yahoo.com)
  3. [S3] NFL Week 9 betting odds for every game - ESPN (espn.com)
  4. [S4] 2026 NFL international games: Highlights, previews, and how to watch on DAZN | DAZN News US (dazn.com)
  5. [S5] NFL Week 5 Schedule: How to Watch, TV Channels, Streaming, Game Previews | FOX Sports (foxsports.com)
  6. [S6] Commanders lose Pro Bowl defensive tackle Daron Payne for the season after suffering practice injury: report | OutKick (foxnews.com)
  7. [S7] Fantasy Football Injury Report & Updates: Week 5 (2026) - FantasyPros (fantasypros.com)
  8. [S8] Myles Garrett returning to Rams practice as Sean McVay delivers huge injury update ahead of Commanders game (nypost.com)
  9. [S9] Rams Finally Get Positive Injury Update on Myles Garrett After Weeks of Uncertainty (si.com)
  10. [S10] Garrett to return to practice this week for Rams, McVay says - ESPN (espn.com)

Built Tue, Nov 3, 6:01 AM EST from ESPN and web news found by Javari AI.

Players' picks